SportsRatings

What is going on with the last 1-seed? We all know that three 1-seeds are set in stone: Dance Chance for games through March 13 (chg/prev since March 8):                              3/13 3/8 Conf Seed Conf Tourney Rank Team Conf Rec % Odds % Chg %Odds 1-seed 3/13 3/8 +0w +1w +2w 1. Arizona B12 31-2 100.0 0.0 64.0 99.9 1 1 1 1 1 2. Duke ACC 31-2 100.0 0.0 83.4 99.5 1 1 1 1 1 3. Michigan B10 30-2 100.0 0.0 79.1 98.7 1 1 1 1 1 4. Houston (LOST) B12 28-5 100.0 0.0 36.0 50.3 1 1 2 1 1 5. Florida (LOST) SEC 26-6 100.0 0.0 69.5 27.9 2 2 2 2 1 6. Iowa St. B12 27-7 100.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 2 2 2 2 2 7. Connecticut (LOST) BE 29-4 100.0...

The bubble is almost settled, or at least, the teams have settled to around where they're going to be as only a few more teams near the waterline have games to play: San Diego State and VCU . Update : VCU won 77-64, while San Diego State lost 73-62. This puts VCU at 50%, and knocks the Aztecs down to 50%, both joining Stanford at 50%. Only 2 of 3 can get the bid, who is left out? We're not sure but VCU is in good shape since St. Louis lost today, so the Rams will face Dayton for the A10 championship. The Rams will be favored to get the auto-bid. The bad news is a loss might drop them below 50%. As for Stanford, in the real world they're in much worse shape than in the Dance Chance.                              3/13 3/8 Conf Seed Conf Tourney Rank Team Conf Rec % Odds % Chg %Odds 3/13 3/8 +0w +1w +2w 42. Santa Clara WCC 26-8 57.2 +13.8 ...

Iowa State just got two blowout wins in the Big Twelve tournament and has moved onto our 1-seed line in the Dance Chance Dance Chance for games through March 12 (chg/prev since March 8):                              3/12 Conf 3/08 Seed Rank Team Conf Rec % Odds %Odds 1-seed %chg 3/12 3/8 +0w +1w +2w 1. Arizona B12 30-2 100.0 51.7 98.6 +14.5 1 1 1 1 1 2. Duke ACC 30-2 100.0 78.7 98.5 0.0 1 1 1 1 1 3. Michigan B10 29-2 100.0 59.2 93.7 +1.0 1 1 1 1 1 4. Iowa St. B12 27-6 100.0 25.3 54.5 +47.8 1 2 2 2 1 5. Houston B12 27-5 100.0 17.8 28.6 -25.2 2 1 2 2 1 6. Florida SEC 25-6 100.0 53.1 19.6 -22.4 2 2 2 2 2 7. Gonzaga ...

These five teams are the ones who are on the bubble and play today. Two of them— VCU and Oklahoma —basically have elimination games, especially the Sooners. Seton Hall fell to St. John's but they're not dead yet. If push comes to shove though, we'd say it looks like they won't make it. The Pirates weren't generating a lot of buzz outside of SportsRatings, though it looks like CBS Sports did have them in their First Four Out.  VCU prevailed and will live to fight another day to stay above the waterline. They're already at worse a tough call for the Committee if they lose to St. Joe's.                              3/12 Conf Seed Conf Tourney Rank Team Conf Rec % Odds %Odds 3/12 3/8 +0w +1w +2w 45. VCU 71 Duquesne 66 A10 25-7 51.0 17.6 11p 30% 45% 50% 46. SDSU 64 New Mex 62 MWC 21-10 46.4 23.3 ...

To recap the state of the bubble—according to the Dance Chance—first let's look at the teams that lost and/or have no more games, and where they sit. Below, every team either lost yesterday or some day prior to that but have parked above the waterline. The closer they are, the more in danger they are, but there was no change in basic status from yesterday's results for any team below:                              3/12 3/8 Conf Seed Conf Tourney Rank Team Conf Rec % Odds % Chg %Odds 3/12 3/8 +0w +1w +2w 35. Villanova BE 24-8 76.8 -9.6 0.0 9 8 9 9 9 36. UCF B12 21-11 70.9 +0.7 0.0 9 10 9 9 9 37. Texas A&M SEC 21-11 69.9 -3.4 0.0 10 9 10 10 10 38. Iowa B10 21-12 68.3 0.0 0.0 10 10 10 10 10 39. N.C. State ...

Today's bubble games with results updated. So far the bubble-team bloodbath continues. Miami Ohio  lost to UMass, their first loss and it will keep them out of the seedings in the Dance Chance for sure. The Selection Committee will almost certainly reserve a play-in spot for a 31-1 team though. This kind of thing is a nightmare for a general algorithm.                              3/11 Conf Seed Conf Tourney Rank Team Conf Rec % Odds %Odds 3/11 3/8 +0w +1w +2w 43. California ACC 21-11 52.4 0.0 11p 11p 50% 50% 50% 44. Stanford ACC 20-12 52.1 0.0 11p 11p 50% 50% 50% 45. VCU A10 24-7 49.3 25.5 11p 15% 40% 11p 46. New Mexico vs SJSU MWC 22-9 47.7 20.6 40% 40% 45% 47. Miami OH 83 UMass 87 MAC 31-1 46.2 24.5 --- 15% 30% 48. SDSU ...

The aftermath of yesterday's Bubble Bloodbath is that teams you never would expect to have remained above the waterline are still in contention for a bid.  First, these are teams that any other year would be a coin flip but they all look really secure right now. NC State is still alive and Missouri starts today; neither looks in much danger and should keep or improve their current seed.                               3/11 3/8 Conf Seed Conf Tourney Rank Team Conf Rec % Odds % Chg %Odds 1-seed 3/11 3/8 +0w +1w +2w 39. N.C. State ACC 20-12 64.9 +2.3 2.3 10 10 10 9 9 40. Missouri SEC 20-11 62.2 -0.6 0.1 10 10 10 10 10 41. SMU ACC 20-13 60.5 0.0 0.0 11 11 11 11 11 42. Santa Clara WCC 26-8 57.4 +14.0 0.0 1...